Will Libya be Obama’s Bay of Pigs?

The Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba was an unsuccessful military action launched by John F. Kennedy,  on CIA advice, in 1961 to overthrow Fidel Castro. The invasion failed in three days. So now Obama is apparently exploring, using CIA operatives, possibilities of American military support in Libya.

Considering how well the CIA did preventing the 1993 New York WTC bombing, the 1998 embassy bombings in Africa, the 2000 USS Cole bombing in the Yemeni port of Aden,  and the 9/11 attacks, Obama will have to, as Hillary Clinton says, “suspend disbelief”  to think they will do better Libya.

Benghazi, Libya (CNN) — The CIA is operating in Libya to help the United States increase its “military and political understanding” of the situation, a U.S. intelligence source said Wednesday.

“Yes, we are gathering intel firsthand and we are in contact with some opposition entities,” the source told CNN.

The White House refused to comment on a Reuters report Wednesday that President Barack Obama has signed a secret order authorizing covert U.S. government support for rebel troops.

via Source: CIA operating in Libya, in consultation with opposition – CNN.com.

Jon Lee Anderson, who has been on the ground with the “rebels” since the beginning of hostilities, reported live on CNN today that armed rebel forces total less than 1,000 men. If so, there is no way for Obama to complete his mandate to remove Mumar Quidaffi without substantial commitment of military support or by direct action against Quidaffi himself. Based on Obama’s general history of weakness and lack of leadership, either of those options is unlikely. Therefore, the odds seem to be in Quidaffi’s favor, that Obama’s mandate will fail, and U.S. military operations to date will go into the record as simply a political move by Obama to create the illusion that he strong and competent.

Further from Jon Lee Anderson, a very interesting article he posted on the New Yorker Blog describing in some detail the composition of Libya rebels. He didn’t even consult the CIA.

Three of the world’s great armies have suddenly conspired to support a group of people in the coastal cities and towns of Libya, known, vaguely, as “the rebels.” Last month, Muammar Qaddafi, who combines a phantasmagorical sense of reality with an unbounded capacity for terror, appeared on television to say that the rebels were nothing more than Al Qaeda extremists, addled by hallucinogens slipped into their milk and Nescafé. President Obama, who is torn between the imperatives of rescuing Libyan innocents from slaughter and not falling into yet another prolonged war, described the same rebels rather differently: “people who are seeking a better way of life.”

via Libya’s Rebels and the War on Qaddafi : The New Yorker.

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